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We have substantially revised the operation of the calculator. We've now taken into account the changes to adoption requirements that China made effective May 1, 2007. The calculator now predicts that China will continue at its same slow rate until it reaches the May 2007 dossiers, and then will speed up (in terms of LID days). We don't think China will do any more referrals, but they'll go through LID days faster because fewer dossiers have been received after May 2007 due to the stricter requirements, so in terms of LID days, it will appear to be faster. In any case, I believe the calculator is significantly more accurate now.
The people receiving referrals now have waited about two and a half years. Their total time to adopt a child from China was about three years, although they were told at the time that it would be less than one year. If you are just putting in your dossier right now, we expect you will wait at least six years from the time your dossier is logged-in for a referral. This will make your total time to adopt from China, from initial decision to adopt until receiving a child, more than seven years. It is our strong recommendation that you avoid adopting from China if at all possible, as we believe that if you are pursuing adoption, it is probably because you are interested in having a child in less than seven years. Domestic adoption and international adoption from other countries are likely to be much faster ways to have a family than adopting from China. Please see our post about China's Shrinking Adoption Program for some more details.
It is unfortunate -- and in our mind, nearly criminal -- that many adoption agencies continue to describe the waiting period to adopt from China as six months, one year, or slightly more than a year. This is dishonest (and by now, with the slowdown underway for two years or more, it can only be described as intentionally dishonest). If your agency significantly understates the expected waiting period for adopting from China, it should be a warning to you not to use that agency.
This is a simple website intended for people who are attempting to adopt internationally from China. We attempt to forecast, based on past performance, just when your paperwork will be processed and you will receive your referral for an adoptable child. Over the years since China's adoption program opened, the delay has fluctuated between six months and two years. From 2001-2003, China implemented quotas to keep the delay down. It appears that within the last two years (2005-2007), a combination of factors including an increase in applications and a "baby-buying" scandal in Hunan province have caused the backlog to increase significantly. China is probably intentionally slowing down international adoptions in order to avoid being perceived as country which "exports" large numbers of its children.
If you're unfamiliar with the international adoption process, here's an overview. You first do a homestudy and complete the paperwork for your local government. Once this step is complete, which can take from three to seven months, you send your dossier to China, where they record receiving it, called the login date or LID. Then it sits in a queue until they have completed processing it, when they return a referral to you. At that point you are in the home stretch and can start loading up on toys and baby clothes. Then you book a flight, make your travel plans for China, and about six to eight weeks after that, you fly to China and pick up your new child, and hopefully have a bit of a vacation. The queue period is both the longest delay, and, recently, the least predictable, providing the reason for this website.
If you are EARLY in the adoption process, you can still use this website. Guess when your homestudy and local government approval might be completed, add a few weeks for the dossier to be sent to China and logged in, and enter that date below.
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Last modified: 2008-07-04 14:08:22